Predictions for Obama’s 2015 State of the Union Address

President Barack Obama is taking a new approach to the annual State of the Union address. While in previous years, hints about the president’s talking points were disclosed the day before the speech; this year will involve “SOTU Spoilers” released well before the actual address, which takes place on Jan. 20. At the first of the New Year, Obama began state visits in which he laid out new executive actions and legislative policy proposals for more affordable and attainable higher education (Tennessee) and housing (Arizona) and further increases in job opportunities (Michigan), according to a White House blog by Dan Pfeiffer.

In each state, the president announced proposals concentrated on improving the economy and helping the middle class. He mentioned a strengthened auto industry, making homes more affordable by structuring policies that allow for cheaper purchases, and a plan to significantly decrease the cost of community college for students.

While these three issues will all be discussed in the address to an extent, the issue on the forefront of American citizens’ and the Obama administration’s mind is cybersecurity. Concerns regarding cybersecurity and Internet safety have grown after the very recent hack on Sony Pictures, an act that, according to the United States government, was the work of North Korea. The issue of more cybersecurity and legislation concerning this topic is not new. Obama has been communicating the importance of more cybersecurity for that past few years, but this most recent hack has brought more attention to the issue and will likely encourage action by both political parties.

Obama has already proposed measures that will increase the prosecution and penalties for cybercrime. He has also called for more open sharing of cyberthreats between companies and the Department of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity center. According to The New York Times, the White House has said companies that are willing to work with the center and share information would get “targeted liability protection.”

The upcoming address will mention these cybersecurity measures and offer more detailed information about their effect on Internet use as a whole. Obama will discuss the importance of moving forward with serious sanctions based on the cyberhacks America has already faced. He will likely call for bipartisan movement on stronger cybersecurity for Americans, keeping in mind the difficulty of passing laws in his new House and Congress.

Obama has serious evidence and momentum for these plans. This most recent hack comes after last year’s series of high-profile breaches at retail chains such as Target and Home Depot. Obama has already said he is focused on working towards new laws governing the handling of consumer data. For instance, as NPR’s Scott Horsley reports, the president has called for a uniform, national requirement that customers be notified within 30 days of any data breach.

 "If we're going to be connected, then we need to be protected," Obama said. "As Americans, we shouldn't have to forfeit our basic privacy when we go online to do our business." (NPR)

In his upcoming address, Obama is likely to explain more about his plans to make American companies more forthcoming when online breaches involving consumer and credit card data are involved. While companies are supportive of small measures to increase cyber safety, they are likely to be wary of larger, broader laws that would affect their businesses and procedures significantly. I expect Obama will mention these criticisms and do his best to dissuade them and defend his position of more cybersecurity.

Immigration is always a hot-button issue within America. Obama has been reiterating the idea of immigration reform since he has been in office, and will continue to do so in his upcoming State of the Union address. I predict he will include an anecdote of some kind to drive home his point that immigration is something America should accept and support, not reject. The president will cite an improving American economy to support actions dedicated to immigration reform.

As budget planning began at my place of business, the Marshall Recreation Center, we immediately felt the impact of Obama’s enacted minimum wage increases. According to statistics from the United States Department of Labor, as of Jan. 1, 2015, 29 states and D.C. will have minimum wages above the federal minimum wage. For the Recreation Center, we had to plan out how increasing the wage for many of our employees was going to affect our overall financial status and budget. As more wage increases are adopted by states, businesses around the country are engaging in the same type of budget planning. Obama will likely mention these increases in his address and stress the importance of implementation. I think he will address business owners directly and explain the necessity of raising the wage, even if it means restructuring budgets. To reinforce his point, Obama will mention people around the country who have benefitted from the increases already adopted.

One of the most recent issues the Obama administration is dealing with is the Keystone XL pipeline. Despite the fact that Obama has already said he would veto an approval of the extension of the pipeline, the Senate advanced legislation to start discussions to approve the Keystone XL pipeline. The House passed the bill last week, but neither vote has been high enough to clear a presidential veto.

As “Friends of the Earth” describes, TransCanada, the company in charge of the project, is planning for a northern section of an oil pipeline that would cover nearly 2,000 miles from Alberta, Canada to the Gulf Coast of Texas. The pipeline will carry tar sands oil, which is said to be one of the world’s dirtiest fuels. Environmentalists and other opponents of the bill are expressing concerns that this pipeline could devastate ecosystems, pollute water sources and jeopardize public health.

Supporters of the Keystone XL Pipeline are focused on the amount of jobs the project would create. In January, the State Department found that the project would create about 42,000 jobs directly and indirectly during the construction phase. The pipeline is projected to result in $2 billion in total economic benefits, according to the State Department review. But, the project will only create 50 permanent jobs, meaning positions that would remain after the projected 2-year construction.

I predict Obama will mention this issue either directly or indirectly. He may use it to illustrate his power, despite the uphill battle he is likely to face with a Republican Congress and House. He may use the issue as an opportunity to solidify his belief that he will not be pushed out of decisions, simply because of partisan disputes.

In its entirety, Obama’s State of the Union address will be hopeful, yet realistic. He is aware that a Republican House and Congress may mean a difficult uphill battle for him, but he will stress the importance of the parties working together to keep America safe, healthy and happy.