Spoiler Alert: I'm Not Good At SOTU Predictions

I was wrong. It hurts, but I can admit it. My predictions for President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address matched up with his address on a few topics, but I missed the mark in a lot of ways. I had a more narrow focus in my predictions, highlighting controversial issues like immigration and the Keystone pipeline. I overestimated the amount of focus he devoted to the issue of cybersecurity, but maybe that is more of a personal fear because of the amount of online shopping I do. I knew he would mention the importance of bettering the middle class situation in America, but I did not plan for that to be as significant a part of his speech as it was. Obama’s address overall was much more broad and far-reaching than I expected it to be. He highlighted an improving American economy, calling the State of the Union strong, while asking for bipartisan cooperation in moving forward a costly domestic agenda designed to improve the lives of the middle class.

His message in his sixth State of the Union address Tuesday was mostly one of optimism encouraging Congress and the American people to work with him to make America stronger and reestablish it as the undeniable leader in the free world.  

“America, for all that we've endured; for all the grit and hard work required to come back; for all the tasks that lie ahead, know this: The shadow of crisis has passed, and the State of the Union is strong. At this moment -- with a growing economy, shrinking deficits, bustling industry, and booming energy production -- we have risen from recession freer to write our own future than any other nation on Earth. It's now up to us to choose who we want to be over the next fifteen years, and for decades to come.”

As Obama adjusts to a presidency without a completely failing economy, overseas wars and campaigns for elections, he made it clear that agenda items he overlooked or put on the backburner would resurface. This resurfacing, of course, comes at a time when Obama faces more Republican opposition in Congress and the House than ever before. He addressed this too, threatening the use of a presidential veto if items in direct opposition to his agenda like any attempt to roll back his health care law or his executive actions on immigration were introduced. I did predict that he would mention the opposition he is up against, and his refusal to conform because of it. But, I underestimated the confidence and strength with which he would speak on his power as president.

As I predicted, middle-class economics was a talking point early on in the president’s address, but it was more prevalent throughout his speech than I expected.

“The verdict is clear,” Mr. Obama said. “Middle-class economics works. Expanding opportunity works. And these policies will continue to work, as long as politics don’t get in the way.”

The president told the story of Rebekah and Ben Erler of Minneapolis who after falling victim to the recession have worked their way back up to a secure financial status. As I predicted, Obama used a personal story to strengthen his argument for helping the middle class.

He introduced his plans to make community college free for most students, claiming that better education is the gateway to a better economy. He also called on Congress to work toward increases in paid leave for workers and create more substantial government assistance for education and child care. As The New York Times reports, these plans are to be financed mostly by tax increases over the next decade on higher income earners as well as a fee on large financial institutions, totaling $320 billion.

Even though I predicted Obama would talk about taking legislative steps toward more affordable housing and education, I did not realize he would be introducing a massive tax plan that would help accomplish these goals.

Cybersecurity and the Keystone pipeline legislation were two areas of his address that I forecasted. Obama mentioned the past cyberattacks and used them as a call to Congress for legislation that would better protect the American people. 

“No foreign nation, no hacker should be able to shut down our networks, steal our trade secrets or invade the privacy of American families, especially our kids,” the president said.

Obama referenced the Republican-supported pipeline legislation briefly, saying, “Let’s set our sights higher than a single oil pipeline.” His point was the need for more ambition and thoughtful action that will do more for our country than the Keystone pipeline is projected to do.

I failed to predict how much Obama would focus on foreign policy in his address. He used the phrase “military power with strong diplomacy” to describe his ideas for foreign policy and called for a smarter kind of American leadership. He mentioned the ongoing terror attacks overseas like Pakistan and Paris, and America’s refusal to ignore such senseless violence. He called on Congress to lift the trade embargo on Cuba and pass legislation authorizing the fight against ISIL. The president also mentioned the ongoing issues with Iran and its development of nuclear weapons. He believes that a deal could be worked out with Iran that would prevent them from developing nuclear weapons, as long as talks are allowed to play out before sanctions are levied.

The president also talked about equality in America and the values we, as Americans, should protect. In his discussion of the economy and jobs, Obama mentioned the importance of women being paid the same as men, saying, “It’s 2015, it’s time.” The president also discussed stereotypes and persecution in America. According to Time magazine, this was the first presidential State of the Union address to include the words “transgender,” “lesbian” and “bisexual.” I was not prepared for Obama to directly mention these controversial topics swirling around in America right now.

Obama also mentioned the events in Ferguson and New York to highlight the commonalities between Democrats and Republicans that are often lost in the shuffle of politics.

“Surely we can agree it's a good thing that for the first time in 40 years, the crime rate and the incarceration rate have come down together, and use that as a starting point for Democrats and Republicans, community leaders and law enforcement, to reform America's criminal justice system so that it protects and serves us all.”

The president discussed other potential areas of cooperation between Democrats and Republicans like more authority to strike trade deals and infrastructure repairs across the country. But Obama balanced these with policies that have faced Republican opposition from the outset like fighting climate change and improving America’s immigration system. I knew he would discuss immigration because it has been and will continue to be one of the main points of argument between Republicans and Democrats.

Though I was prepared for a little more tension this year than usual based on the new Republican Congress, I was surprised when the tensions mounted as Obama mentioned having no more campaigns to run, which drew resounding applause from Republicans. Obama countered back quickly, "I know, because I won both of them,” drawing hushed reactions of humor, support and disapproval.

My overall predictions of the tone of Obama’s address were accurate. I predicted that it would be hopeful, yet realistic taking into account the uphill battle he may face with the new Republican Congress. I said he would strongly emphasize the importance of the parties working together to do what’s best for America, and not letting politics get in the way, which is exactly what he did. He made it clear that his last few years as president will be full of smart, forward-thinking action. We’ll see.